MOSCOW: Analysts lowered expectations for the average key rate in 2025 and slightly raised them for 2026, according to the February macro...
MOSCOW: Analysts lowered expectations for the average key rate in 2025 and slightly raised them for 2026, according to the February macroeconomic survey from the Bank of Russia.
Thus, the forecast for 2025 was lowered to 20.5% per annum (-0.8 percentage points), and for 2026 it was raised to 15% per annum (+0.4 percentage points). The forecast for 2027 (10.4% per annum) remains significantly higher than the median estimate of the neutral key rate (8% per annum).
The inflation forecast for 2025 has been increased to 6.8% (+0.8 percentage points compared to the December survey), while for 2026 it has been changed less significantly - to 4.6% (+0.1 percentage points). Analysts expect inflation to return to the target figure in 2027.
The GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2027 have been slightly increased, while in 2026 they remain unchanged at 1.6% (+0.1 percentage points), 1.7%, and 2.0% (+0.1 percentage points), respectively. The median estimate of long-term growth rates has also been slightly increased to 1.9% (+0.1 percentage points). According to analysts' forecasts, GDP growth in 2027 compared to 2021 will reach +11.9% (+11.7% in December).
Analysts expect the consolidated budget deficit in 2025 to reach 1.2% of GDP (in December - 1.1%). Forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have not changed - 1% of GDP. The forecast for exports of goods and services has been significantly revised downwards to $458 bln in 2025 (-$17 bln), $463 bln in 2026 (-$17 bln), and $472 bln in 2027 (-$10 bln). This is 14% ($78 bln) lower than exports in 2021.
Forecasts for imports of goods and services have also been reduced, but less noticeably than for exports - $380 bln (-$2 bln) in 2025, $390 bln (-$5 bln) in 2026, and $399 bln (-$2 bln) in 2027. This is 6% ($22 bln) higher than imports in 2021.
The dollar exchange rate forecast has been increased over the entire forecast period. Analysts expect an average exchange rate of 104.7 rubles per dollar in 2025, 108.8 rubles in 2026, and 110.4 rubles in 2027 (in 2025-2027, the ruble will be weaker by 2.6-4.6% compared to the December survey).
Also, according to expectations, the price of Brent crude oil will reach $75 per barrel on average in 2025-2026. In 2027, the price is expected to fall to $72 per barrel.
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